Smučišče Forum Sölden

Do you think the weather forecast for the next day is 95% accurate? It was supposed to snow 40 cm in four days before Christmas. It snowed about 5 cm in one day only. Today, according to the continuously updated forecast, it was supposed to snow 8 cm. It ended up being 0. The forecast was changing to events every 2-4 h. It's a mockery. Solden is now essentially free of natural snow. We ski only on artificial snow.

Forecasting is more difficult in the Alps than in other regions. Sölden doesn't benefit so much if the ‘bad weather’ comes from the north/west or west. For more snow in Sölden, you need a weather situation that comes from the south. In Europe, cloudy weather tends to come from the west. So it is quite normal that there is little snow in the valley in Sölden.

And snowfall is nature and nature doesn't need plans and doesn't care about plans.

And by the way on 03. January there is new snow fallen in Sölden.

Das ist alles möglich, hat aber nicht viel mit der Tatsache zu tun, dass die 95%ige Genauigkeit der Schätzung am zweiten Tag für 4 von 5 Tagen nicht zutraf. Und die Vorhersage wird mehrmals am Tag aktualisiert. In Wirklichkeit gilt sie also in der Regel für weniger als 24 Stunden.

That's all possible, but it doesn't have much to do with the fact that the 95% accuracy of the estimate on the second day didn't apply for 4 out of 5 days. And that's actually the forecast updated several times a day. So in reality it is typically for less than 24 hrs.